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과제명 인구변화가 노동시장, 교육, 의료에 미치는 영향: 전망과 대응 방안
기관명 저출산고령사회위원회
담당부서 저출산고령사회위원회
전화번호 02-2100-1244
연구기간 2018-09-20 ~ 2019-05-17
연구분야 저출산대응 및 인구정책지원
개요 인구구조 변화에 대한 전망에 기초하여 저출산 고령화 사회의 도래가 노동, 교육, 의료 등에 미칠 영향을 분석하고, 향후 정책추진 방향에 대한 시사점과 기대효과 도출 필요

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수행기관 서울대학교 산학협력단 [대학]
수행연구원 이철희
계약일자 2018-09-20
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제목 인구변화가 노동시장, 교육, 의료에 미치는 영향: 전망과 대응 방안
연구보고서
목차
1. 장래인구변화가 전체 및 산업별 노동시장에 미칠 영향: 시나리오별 전망 ····1 1.1. 머리말 ··········································1 1.2. 장래 출생아 수 및 인구변화에 대한 시나리오 설정 ···············3 (1) 출생아 수 전망 배경 ································3 (2) 출생아 수 변화 시나리오 ······························4 (3) 장래 출생아 수 추정 방법 ·····························9 (4) 장래 출생아 수 추정 결과 ····························10 (5) 대안적인 시나리오에 기초한 장래인구추계 ··················14 (6) 소결 ·········································21 1.3. 인구변화가 전체 노동인력 규모와 구조에 미치는 영향 ············2 (1) 방법 ·········································2 (2) 장래 경제활동인구 변화 전망 ··························23 (3) 소결 ·········································32 1.4. 인구변화가 각 산업의 노동인력 규모와 구조에 미치는 영향 ·········3 (1) 방법 ·········································3 (2) 인구변화가 산업별 고용규모 및 연령구조에 미치는 영향 ·········35 (3) 소결 ·········································48 1.5. 결과의 요약과 정책적 시사점 ···························49 (1) 결과의 요약 ·····································49 (2) 일반적인 정책대응방안에 대한 시사점 ·····················51 (3) 노동시장 관련 정책대응방안에 대한 시사점 ·················52 2. 장래인구변화가 교육부문에 미치는 영향 ·······················56 2.1. 머리말 ·········································56 2.2. 초등학교 ········································57 (1) 주요 지표들의 205-2018년 변화 추이 ···················57 (2) 2019-2067년 주요 지표 추계 ·························62 (3) 공립 초등학교 교원 수급 ·····························68 (4) 종합검토 및 정책제언 ·······························71 2.3. 중등학교 ········································75 (1) 중학교: 주요 지표들의 205-2018년 변화 추이 ··············75 (2) 중학교: 2019-2067년 주요 지표 추계 ····················80 (3) 고등학교: 주요 지표들의 205-2018년 변화 추이 ·············85 (4) 고등학교: 2019-2067년 주요 지표 추계 ···················90 (5) 공립 중등학교 교원 수급 ·····························95 (6) 중등교육 종합검토 및 정책제언 ·························9 2.4. 대학교 ········································10 (1) 주요 통계 지표 분석 ·······························10 (2) 지역별 대학정원과 학생 수 ···························106 (3) 전공별 정원과 노동시장 성과 ·························14 (4) 고등학교 3학년 학생 수 추계와 대학정원 ··················19 (5) 종합평가와 정책제언 ·······························12 3. 인구변화가 의료서비스 수요와 의료 인력에 미치는 영향 ············125 3.1. 머리말 ········································125 3.2. 의료서비스 수요 변화 ·······························127 (1) 총내원일수 변화 전망 ······························128 (2) 질병별 의료서비스 수요 변화 전망 ······················134 (3) 전문과목별 내원일수 전망 ···························136 3.3. 보건의료인력 공급의 변화 ····························152 (1) 전체 의사 인력 규모의 전망 ··························152 (2) 전문과목별 의사 규모 전망 ···························157 3.4. 보건의료인력의 업무량 ······························162 3.5. 결과의 요약과 정책적 시사점 ··························171 참고문헌 ···········································174 부 록 ·············································179
 

1. 장래인구변화가 전체 및 산업별 노동시장에 미칠 영향: 시나리오별 전망 ····1
 1.1. 머리말 ··········································1
 1.2. 장래 출생아 수 및 인구변화에 대한 시나리오 설정 ···············3
 
(1) 출생아 수 전망 배경 ································3
 
(2) 출생아 수 변화 시나리오 ······························4
 
(3) 장래 출생아 수 추정 방법 ·····························9
 
(4) 장래 출생아 수 추정 결과 ····························10
 
(5) 대안적인 시나리오에 기초한 장래인구추계 ··················14
 
(6) 소결 ·········································21
 1.3. 인구변화가 전체 노동인력 규모와 구조에 미치는 영향 ············2
 
(1) 방법 ·········································2
 
(2) 장래 경제활동인구 변화 전망 ··························23
 
(3) 소결 ·········································32
 1.4. 인구변화가 각 산업의 노동인력 규모와 구조에 미치는 영향 ·········3
 
(1) 방법 ·········································3
 
(2) 인구변화가 산업별 고용규모 및 연령구조에 미치는 영향 ·········35
 
(3) 소결 ·········································48
 1.5. 결과의 요약과 정책적 시사점 ···························49
 
(1) 결과의 요약 ·····································49
 
(2) 일반적인 정책대응방안에 대한 시사점 ·····················51
 
(3) 노동시장 관련 정책대응방안에 대한 시사점 ·················52
2. 장래인구변화가 교육부문에 미치는 영향 ·······················56
 2.1. 머리말 ·········································56
 2.2. 초등학교 ········································57
 
(1) 주요 지표들의 205-2018년 변화 추이 ···················57
 
(2) 2019-2067년 주요 지표 추계 ·························62
 
(3) 공립 초등학교 교원 수급 ·····························68
 
(4) 종합검토 및 정책제언 ·······························71
 2.3. 중등학교 ········································75
 
(1) 중학교: 주요 지표들의 205-2018년 변화 추이 ··············75
 
(2) 중학교: 2019-2067년 주요 지표 추계 ····················80
 
(3) 고등학교: 주요 지표들의 205-2018년 변화 추이 ·············85
 
(4) 고등학교: 2019-2067년 주요 지표 추계 ···················90
(5) 공립 중등학교 교원 수급 ·····························95
 
(6) 중등교육 종합검토 및 정책제언 ·························9
 2.4. 대학교 ········································10
 
(1) 주요 통계 지표 분석 ·······························10
 
(2) 지역별 대학정원과 학생 수 ···························106
 
(3) 전공별 정원과 노동시장 성과 ·························14
 
(4) 고등학교 3학년 학생 수 추계와 대학정원 ··················19
 
(5) 종합평가와 정책제언 ·······························12
3. 인구변화가 의료서비스 수요와 의료 인력에 미치는 영향 ············125
 3.1. 머리말 ········································125
 3.2. 의료서비스 수요 변화 ·······························127
 
(1) 총내원일수 변화 전망 ······························128
 
(2) 질병별 의료서비스 수요 변화 전망 ······················134
 
(3) 전문과목별 내원일수 전망 ···························136
 3.3. 보건의료인력 공급의 변화 ····························152
 
(1) 전체 의사 인력 규모의 전망 ··························152
 
(2) 전문과목별 의사 규모 전망 ···························157
 3.4. 보건의료인력의 업무량 ······························162
 3.5. 결과의 요약과 정책적 시사점 ··························171
참고문헌 ···········································174
부 록 ·············································179
초록
○ 인구변화 대안적 시나리오 설정
   - 연령별 유배우 여성 비율 및 유배우 출산율 변화 추세 적용하여 장래 출생아 수 전망, 성별?연령별 인구 추계
 ○ 인구고령화가 산업별 인력수급에 미치는 영향
   - 최근 10년 동안의 산업별 인력수급 사정을 분석하여 인력고령화가 각 산업에 미치는 효과 분석 
   - 출생아 수 전망치에 기초하여 추정한 장래의 성별ㆍ연령별 인구를 적용하여 장래의 경제활동인구와 취업인구 추정
 ○ 학령인구 감소가 대학에 미칠 파급효과 분석 및 대학 정책의 변화
   - 대학 정책은 노동시장의 학력구성에 큰 영향을 미치는 정책으로 학령인구 감소로 인한 대학 정책의 변화가 노동시장에 미칠 영향을 다각도에서 분석
 ○ 미래의 초·중·고등학교 학생규모 예측
   - 학령인구 감소로 초래될 학교재정, 교원임용 등 문제 진단, 현장에 미칠 파급효과 예측 및 대응
 ○ 의료 수요 및 공급 불일치 전망과 대응
   - 인구구조변화에 따른 질병 구조의 변화와 의료 수요 변화 추정 
   - 추정 결과를 이용해 향후 의사 인력 공급과 의료 수요 간 불일치 문제가  확대될 수 있는 세부 영역 확인
주제어 인구변화가 노동시장, 교육, 의료에 미치는 영향: 전망과 대응 방안
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