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과제명 저출산 고령사회 기본계획 보완 연구
기관명 저출산고령사회위원회
담당부서 저출산고령사회위원회 미래기획팀
전화번호 02-2100-1244
연구기간 2017-12-06 ~ 2018-03-05
연구분야 저출산대응 및 인구정책지원
개요 ①  저출산·고령사회 기본계획에 대한 평가 및 국민 인식 연구
   - 지난 10년간 저출산 영역에서의 기본계획에 대한 성과와 한계 및 비판적 재평가 실시
   - 저출산?고령사회 기본계획에 대해 기존의 국민 인식 검토
 ③ 제3차 저출산?고령사회 기본계획 과제와 국정과제 비교?검토
   - 제3차 저출산·고령사회 기본계획에 새 정부의 국정과제 정합성을 가지는지 여부 비교
   - 보완 필요 과제, 신규 과제 등 비교?검토
 ④ 제3차 저출산?고령사회 기본계획 보완방향 및 핵심과제 연구
   - 국정 철학을 담은 기본계획 추진 방향, 핵심 추진과제, 보완 사항 검토

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수행기관 한국보건사회연구원 [정부출연기관]
수행연구원 김종훈
계약일자 2017-12-06
계약방식 수의 계약
계약금액 30,000,000원

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제목 저출산고령사회 기본계획 보완 연구
연구보고서
목차
요 약 ·············································································································································1
제1장 서 론 ···········································································································15
제1절 연구의 배경 ··················································································································17
제2절 연구의 목적 ··················································································································20
제2장 저출산·고령사회 기본계획에 대한 평가 ······················································21
제1절 총론 ······························································································································23
제2절 ?저출산·고령사회기본계획?에서의 영역별 정책 현황 및 평가 ·····································31
제3절 ?저출산·고령사회기본계획? 시행계획에 대한 성과평가 결과 ·······································53
제3장 저출산·고령사회 기본계획에 대한 국민 인식 연구 검토 ····························69
제1절 2015년도 전국 출산력 및 가족보건?복지 실태조사 ·····················································71
제2절 저출산대책 중요도에 대한 조사 ···················································································77
제3절 2015년도 저출산?고령사회정책 관련 국민체감도 조사 ···············································91
제4장 제3차 저출산·고령사회 기본계획 과제와 국정과제와의 관련성 검토 ·········97
제1절 저출산 분야 ··················································································································99
제2절 고령사회 분야 ·············································································································106
제3절 대응기반 강화 분야 ····································································································112
제5장 제3차 저출산·고령사회 기본계획 보완방향 제안 ·····································113
제1절 총론 및 배경 ··············································································································115
제2절 인구정책 및 저출산·고령화 대책의 기본 방향과 전략 ···············································118
제3절 저출산?고령사회기본계획 보완 방향 예시 ···································································123
참고문헌 ···············································································································125
초록
? (인구현황) 2017년은 우리나라의 저출산?고령화 추세가 통계작성 이후 가장 심화된
형태로 나타난 해였음. 출생통계 작성(1970년) 이래 최저 출생아수(35만 8천 명)와
최저 (기간)합계출산율(period total fertility rate) (1.05명 내외)을 기록하였고,
연간 사망자수도 사망원인통계 작성(1983년) 이후 최대치(28만 6천 명)
○ 저출산 추세의 심화는 가임여성 인구 규모 자체의 축소가 가속화하는 인구구조적
요인이 가장 크며, 사회?문화적으로도 혼인과 출산에 대한 인식이 나아지지 않아
비혼, 만혼, 만산, 단산 경향이 사회적으로 확대된 점도 영향
- 여성의 평균 혼인연령과 출산연령이 최대치를 경신하는 가운데 혼인과 출산의
지연이 30대 이후 만회(tempo effect)되는 회복력 자체(완결출산력)도 저하되
고 있는 것으로 추정됨.
○ 사망 추이는 80세 이상의 고령층을 중심으로 한 고령인구의 빠른 증가를 반영
○ 저출산?고령화 추세는 경제성장과 사회성숙을 이룬 사회에서 공통된 경향이기는
하지만, 우리나라의 경우 그 속도와 추이가 유난히 빠르고 완화나 반전의 기미가
보이지 않는 점이 문제
- 특히, 저출산 현상의 경우 출생아수 감소가 더 심해지면 합계출산율의 반등에도
출생아수 감소가 지속되는 ‘음(-)의 관성효과’가 나타날 가능성이 있음.
? (정책적 대응과 개략적 성과) 우리 정부 차원의 정책적 대응은 저출산?고령화위원회
출범(2005년)에 이은 두 차례의 5개년 저출산?고령사회기본계획과 현행 제3차 기
본계획(2016-2020년)까지 12년을 경과했으나, “저출산 추세의 심화를 극복하고
고령인구 증가에 따른 경제의 활력 감소와 성장잠재력 감퇴, 재정을 포함한 국가 지
속가능성 우려를 해소”하고자 한 목표에는 미달하고 재정과 정책자원 투입 대비 효과성도 미흡하다는 평가를 받고 있음.
○ 정책의 실효성 차원에서 저출산?고령화 대책 수단들의 상당수에 대한 정책수요자
(개인과 가족 단위)의 인지, 체감, 동의는 크게 부족한 것이 현실임.
주제어 저출산 고령사회 기본계획 보완 연구
발행년도 2018년

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